Friday, June 26, 2009

TEXAS QUICK TO BOUNCE BACK FROM RECESSION, FORBES SAYS

WASHINGTON (Forbes) – Several Texas cities are poised for a quick recovery from the national recession, according to Forbes.

Austin–Round Rock ranked first on the magazine’s recent list of ten cities most likely to bounce back quickly.

Meanwhile, San Antonio ranked fifth, Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington seventh and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission ninth.

To compile its list, Forbes looked at estimates from Moody's Economy.com of the projected gross domestic product of metropolitan areas across the United States, as well as unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and home prices, incomes and affordability data from the National Association of Home Builders.

Forbes also put together a list of ten worst cities for recession recovery. No Texas cities made that list.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

THIS ECONOMY WANTS TO RECOVER

In his recent Croesus Chronicles for Forbes, Robert Lenzner outlined several economic points:
- "The bear market ended March 9, and the end of the worst recession since the 1930s, or is it the mid 1970s, is plainly in sight."



- "About $120 billion has been pulled out of global market funds since mid-March;"



- 'Yet money market assets are still equal to 50% of the S&P 500 market cap...Since 1990, money market assets have averaged about 20% of the S&P 500 market cap. This is a huge potential buying power.


While no one is certain that a new bull market has begun, we can point to some telling signs:


"Stocks broke higher on June 1 even though the yield on 30-yeard Treasuries climbed back above 4.5%...This is what the long bond yielded in August of 2008. Just before the meltdown in credit markets during the fall of 2008."



"Credit markets are healing, as spreads have fallen considerably."



"Corporations are able to raise tens of billions in the short-term debt market."



"The yield curve, the difference in yield between short-term and long-term securities, usually widens in advance of an economic recovery, and it has done so."



"Stocks also rose spectacularly despite the bankruptcy of General Motors and the continuing loss of jobs in the automobile industry. Bad news doesn't seem to be rocking the market like it did a few months ago."



"Earnings yields on equities still remain comfortably above the yield on 10-year Treasuries and should have the ability to absorb higher interest rates driven by economic recovery."



'The US manufacturing institute for Supply Management index rose to 42.8 in May, which usually signals that gross domestic is expanding rather the faltering."



'Housing, the genesis of the crisis, is showing signs of stabilization and even amelioration. Pending sales were up 6.7% in April, even if prices are still in the tank.'



'Even automobile sales improved in May to an annualized 10 million vehicle level.'



'There has also been a mini-bull market going on in commodities that has been mightier than the one for stocks. This outperformance by commodities is another leading indicator of an economy about to turn the corner.'



And lastly, "Another factor that helps the Dow is the replacement of two stocks with no earning--General Motors and Citigroup--with Travelers and Cisco."


"Looks to Croesus that this market wants to rise, deflation or inflation both be damned!"

Monday, June 22, 2009

Forecasting the Floor

While experts run the gamut in their outlook for real estate, sound business
practices supercede futile attempts to time the market.

Are we there yet?
With the summer vacation season in full swing, most of us in real estate are
asking our own version of this signature refrain of the family road trip.
In our case, it’s a question of, ‘Have we hit the floor?’
When can we start looking forward to shrinking inventories, stable prices and an
upward trend in the number of transactions?

While much of the media is still charging ahead with dire forecasts for real estate,
a recent spate of experts are claiming that a housing-market recovery is imminent.
Even though this is the news that we’ve been waiting to hear, we need to take it
with a grain of salt. As always, the real story is much more complicated and lies
somewhere within the spectrum of the doom and gloom and the upbeat projections.
Many of you have recently asked me for my thoughts on a recent Wall Street
Journal commentary entitled, “The Housing Crisis is Over” by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux,
managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York. When I
read the claim in the article that, “It is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of
the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now,” I suspected
that there might be a need to look beneath the surface of his claims.

Noting that new home sales are down 63 percent and housing starts have fallen by
more than 50 percent from their July 2005 peak; and that housing starts in 2008 will hit
their lowest level ever, Moulle-Berteaux emphasized that the same factor that sparked the
housing decline is soon to reverse it: affordability.

He explained that “by 2005 and 2006, the average monthly income required to
service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased had reached 25 percent.
For first-time homebuyers that figure had climbed to 37 percent.”

But since then, according to Moulle-Berteaux, “home prices have fallen 10
percent to 15 percent, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and
interest rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs.” Moulle-Berteaux’s
conclusion: “… homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of
times in the 1990s – down to 19 percent of income for the average home buyer and 31
percent of income for the first-time home buyer.”


Affordability in March 2008, is actually at 19 percent, back to where it was in
early 2004, but one of the key factors affecting affordability in the current market is low
interest rates. If inflation increases, in the near future, interest rates could likely go up,
which could counter the current direction in affordability.

Another factor that Moulle-Berteaux points to as a sign of recovery is the recent
decline in new home inventories – from a high of 598,000 in July 2006, to 482,000 at the
end of March 2008. Conceding that the current new- home inventory is still at a 25-year
high, and equivalent to an 11- month supply, he argues that current levels are similar to
those seen at the end of previous housing market downturns in 1974, 1982 and 1991,
which in all three instances were followed by a slowing in home-price declines within the
next six months. As new home construction begins to undershoot new home sales, which
Moulle-Berteaux anticipates is soon to occur at a rate of 50,000 to 100,000 annually, he
contends that inventories will drop to 400,000 – or a seven month’s supply – by the end
of 2008.

While he makes a seemingly compelling argument, we should be careful not to
accept such analyses at face value. Moulle-Berteaux does not always paint the entire
picture and omits critical informa tion, such as the fact that existing home inventories –
which account for a far greater portion of the housing market – are at their highest levels
since September 1981.

That being said, Moulle-Berteaux is clearly not alone in his assertions that the
housing market is showing signs of a rebound. Among those noting positive trends is
Professor Karl Case of Wellesley College in Wellesley, Mass. Case looked at the past
three housing downturns in 1991, 1982 and 1975, and noticed that the market started to
clear when housing starts dropped below the 1 million mark – as they did in March of
2008.

At the same time, the National Association of REALTORS® sees signs of
recovery for reasons that include:
· Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have announced plans to increase funds available
for home loans.
· The use of FHA loans is on the rise.
· Pending home sales are on the rise in areas where affordability has increased.
In a further effort to stimulate the housing market, Fannie Mae announced that
starting June 1, 2008, it will accept down payments as low as 3 percent for single-family,
primary residences on loans it purchases.

But despite its initiatives to jumpstart real estate, Fannie Mae is not anticipating a
housing recovery to take hold until 2010. Addressing business journalists this Spring,
Daniel Mudd, president and chief executive of Fannie May said, “Forecasting the bottom
of the housing slump is a tricky business, with the many conflicting predictions by
economists as proof.” We couldn’t agree more.

Clearly, the housing market is a complicated business that does not rise and fall
based on one or two factors. And even though real estate is cyclical, we need to avoid the
expectation that prescribed patterns or trends are necessarily at play. The current
downturn is quite different from the housing recessions of 1991, 1982 and 1975 – due
primarily to the tightening of the credit markets following the fallout of the sub-prime
loan market, as well as the historically high rates of foreclosures. A striking similarity,
however, between the current housing market and previous downturns in the housing
cycle is the dramatic increase in oil prices.

It’s perfectly understandable to want to find the definitive forecast for residential
real estate and to seek a return to the heydays of housing, but we have little to gain in
latching on to any particular forecast or trying to time the market. We have everything to
gain, however, by managing expenses in order to survive, doing whatever it takes to
generate the leads that we need to thrive, seizing opportunities to build our share of the
current market, and emphasizing to clients who are trying to sort through many
conflicting messages that real estate is essentially a local business.

What’s happening within your local markets is all that’s relevant. You are our
local market’s real estate expert.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Referral Reward Programs and Referral Likelihood

by Suzanne Blake, M.B.A. Candidate

How can referrals affect your business positively? Conversely, what is the significance of the damage they can inflict? Referral reward programs can play a considerable role in establishing the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of referrals. In A Penny for Your Thoughts: Referral Reward Programs and Referral Likelihood, L. Feick and G. Ryu conducted a study in which they did four experiments to determine the impact that reward programs have on referrals. Their findings show that reward programs do matter; furthermore, brand strength, personal ties, and the person receiving the reward all have an impact on the effectiveness of the reward. As word-of-mouth (WOM) advertising can be a particularly difficult method to implement and measure, this article provides some very useful information that may assist in establishing effective WOM advertising. Please note, the industry studied here was not real estate, though the core findings will still be relevant to your field. The results of this research should not be applied blindly, but with serious thought as to how they might be relevant in your particular market. Specific types of marketing media, measures of time, and percentages should be altered to fit your industry.

1. "Consumers consider the value of potential cost for themselves and for the other consumer in rewarded referral."
THINK: Approach rewarded referrals from the perspective of the buyer rather than that of the seller. Think about what the rewards and benefits are for the home owner when s/he makes a recommendation. According to exchange theory, consumers will make a decision to provide a referral based on what's in it for themselves. Looking at rewarded referrals from this point of view will assist real estate agents in determining how to reward referrals.

2. "With strong ties, people tend to have communal relationships in which they feel general concern about the other person's welfare. They respond to the other's needs but do not expect anything in return... With weak ties, reciprocity is important; people expect to get back what they put in."
THINK: With this in mind, it makes sense that people would naturally refer close friends and family. However, to go out of their way to refer a more distant acquaintance, they may need some incentive or expect to get something out of the referral. If real estate agents can focus their rewards on those weaker relationships, they may have referrals that would not have occurred organically.

3. "Research shows that consumers respond to stronger and weaker brands differently." "[The] stronger commitment gives consumers of a stronger brand more confidence in making recommendations, thus increasing (unrewarded) referral likelihood."
THINK: When working with a strong realtor name brand, the agent should focus on the quality and prestige associated with that brand as it will help increase referrals. This methodology would also apply to a real estate agent who is well-established in the industry. By focusing on his/her proven track record, s/he will be able to generate more referrals. On the other hand, when working with lesser-known brands or when working as a new, lesser known real estate agent, rewards may be much more crucial to realizing positive referrals.

4. "Offering a reward increased referral likelihood by more than 20 percentage points for the weaker brand but by less than 10 percentage points for the stronger brand."
THINK: This experiment shows the validity of the previous point that reward incentives are more important for weaker brands or lesser known realtors than for strong brand names. The efforts of rewards programs have a greater magnitude when used by weaker brands.

5. "The first referrals from a customer will probably be family or close friends for whom the recommendation is likely to have occurred anyway. It is probably subsequent referrals, presumably weaker ties, that need encouragement."
THINK: This supports the second point that rewards should be focused on weaker tie relationships. According to the article, one way this can be realized is to offer rewards of higher value as referrals increase. Home buyers would be most likely to refer family members or very close friends first. A reward of greater value may be necessary to extend their recommendations to more distant friends.

6. "Making a referral without any extrinsic reward may create feelings of inequity for a customer; the referral is an unreciprocated favor done for the consumer and the company."
THINK: Rewarded referrals may not just be an added benefit to business. In fact, it may be advisable to think of rewarded referrals as a necessary part of doing business. In order to establish beneficial long-term relationships, people need to feel that there is balance in the relationship. Rewarding referrals is one way to establish this balance in the proverbial "bank of favors."

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

The New Real Estate Professional

By Saul Klein

The New Real Estate Professional
Salespeople and brokers appear overwhelmed by all the choices computers and technology offer. Emerging from the stress and confusion generated by countless choices is a new breed of real estate professional. What does this new real estate professional look like and how does he or she differentiate themselves from their competition?

An Information Specialist
As the new real estate professional, you recognize that the hottest commodity in the real estate business is information. Consumers can become overwhelmed and confused by the “information overload” generated by the Internet. You are adept at extracting information from the Internet and the local and/or regional MLS, and then re-assembling the information into knowledge, thus creating value for the consumer.

You will add value to the transaction in the ways you handle information for the property buyer and seller. What are the things you can do with information?

  • filter
  • sort
  • customize
  • manage
  • analyze
  • process
  • display


For example, you can email a Comparative Market Analysis along with digital photos and key public record information, such as taxes and building permits. As the new real estate professional, you are in the information business!


A Web Surfer
Armed with a computer and Internet access, you are now an integral part of the new world of doing business within the online community. With the real estate industry in the early phases of doing business online, you are leading the charge. Although no one has all the answers on how to best use the Internet as a tool to market products and generate revenue, you continue to experiment with new approaches every day - and you are steadily finding success with consumers online.


An Email User
You are an email powerhouse. No more telephone tag, time zone concerns, long distance charges, interrupted conversations, or piles of unanswered correspondence.


Email is one of the most effective marketing, advertising, risk reduction, and communication tools available in business. With a click of the mouse, and then a copy and paste of some hot news reports, you easily create a personal electronic newsletter filled with solid content. Another click brings up a distribution list of hundreds of clients/prospects with email addresses around the globe; another click and the e-newsletter is sent instantly to the computers of everyone on your list. No stamps to lick, no envelopes to stuff. All at the push of a button, at the speed of light.
You are sure to display your permanent email address on business cards, letterhead, vehicle plates, car magnets, billboards, sign riders, property ads, and even mention it on your voice mail message. You actively solicit the email address of every potential client and prospect - capturing email addresses with permission becomes an important daily task. You check for email messages as frequently as checking for voice mail (if not more often) and then make sure to respond promptly, recognizing that consumers are not going to wait before contacting another real estate licensee.


A Web Site to Brag About
Recognizing that “content is king,” you develop a web site employing useful hypertext links (an electronic cross-reference) to other web sites - the idea being to showcase your professionalism and expertise. You endeavor to keep the material fresh and updated, perhaps sending email alerts when updates are made so consumers are encouraged to “bookmark” and revisit your site regularly. Listing information is the key to a “stickier” web site, so make sure you are familiar with your local MLS rules pertaining to “Internet Data Exchange” and “Virtual Office Web Sites” (IDX and VOW).


You view your web site as a publishing vehicle, though never more important than word of mouth and good service. Consumers locate the web site by using any one of the several branded domain names you've registered which all point to your main site.


Work From a Mobile Office
As the new real estate professional, your office is comprised of all the devices you carry with you. There is the smart phone, the laptop with a wireless modem, the PDA (personal digital assistant) handheld device (containing the complete MLS inventory and access to the electronic Lock Box), the programmable financial calculator, the scanner, and the portable printer.
Your computer can link into the company computer and receive messages, fax MLS listings, and access other helpful data. Meetings and conferences are conducted more efficiently online through email and password protected company Intranet. There are fewer and shorter live meetings to attend because most of the background information, agenda, confirmations, updates, and follow-up are handled online.


Focus on Growth, Self-Development and New Skills
You remain aware of the major cultural changes occurring in the information age. You work to develop clients and prospects who are comfortable maintaining an “electronic rapport” with a competent real estate professional - one who can keep the client up to date with email, newsletters, property photos, and transaction documents transmitted electronically. You use traditional as well as electronic techniques to provide clients and prospects with local community information and resources.


Get involved with Social Networking sites such as RealTown.com, Facebook, and others. Connect through sites such as Twitter and LinkedIn.
You are able to complete the mandatory state-approved continuing education requirements through computer-based education courses when offered online in various states. You tune into private networks for online interviews and seminars by panels of national experts. As an Association member, you now have a way to make leadership accountable online for some of their decisions - talk about grass-roots participation. Each member has a clear voice in the process.


Use a Technical Real Estate Assistant
You might consider hiring a virtual assistant, an individual who is highly skilled in all phases of real estate technology and the Internet. Some offices will have a professional assistant assigned to several licensees. Likely, these assistants will be former real estate associates who have focused their energies on understanding and applying the new technology to enhance their employer's business practice. The assistant will also be responsible for performing back-ups to protect valuable information and files stored in the computer. In some cases, the ‘virtual assistant’ may operate from another part of the country.


Engage the Consumer
For better or worse, the days of the “real estate mortician” are gone forever. You know the real estate morticians - they are the real estate licensees who throw buyers into the back seat of the car and drive them around until they are dead. No more! Today's connected consumers want to be actively engaged in the process.


Moreover, they demand that the real estate salespeople working on their behalf add real value to the transaction. For the selling consumer, that means interpreting and applying the wealth of information in their best interests. For the buying consumer, that means finding and sharing property information quickly and efficiently to prevent loss of opportunity.


Join Online Communities
Welcome to the community of the world, a world where the new real estate professional can choose to associate and communicate with different groups of people at the push of a button, at the speed of light, on a local connection. The Internet connects people with people. It is the network of networks.


A result of connecting people is the creation of “community”. Online communities are re-inventing the way we communicate, learn, and share information. Individuals, associations and businesses are discovering the power, versatility and affordability of Internet communities as a reliable resource for information on just about any topic you can imagine.


You are a Master Networker
You will participate online with several discussion groups networking with professionals and consumers sharing common interests - perhaps a group of commercial brokers, buyer brokers, real estate attorneys, or educators. It is like being at a national convention 365 days out of the year. It pays to network. Online networking is just another way of expanding key contacts.


Participate in an Online Business Network
As your business moves from paper-based commerce to electronic commerce, the players in the typical real estate transaction become linked electronically. Available transaction management systems will streamline the processing and closing of the transaction. You become an expert transaction manager. On command, you can alert the appraiser, surveyor, attorney, home inspector, title company, and lender via email to start work and to submit reports and documents electronically. Those players who are not up to date with the new technology will not be part of the closing process - and may be looking for a different line of work.


Technology as a Tool of the Trade
Even though you are the new real estate professional, you still keep technology in perspective - some days you find yourself using a #2 lead pencil more than your laptop. You use the computer to become more efficient in business - for example, to create standard presentations and computerized checklists and action plans to keep track of deadlines, creating a “paperless trail” for each transaction.


The tools enable you to gather much of the needed transaction information - less time tracking down information translates into more face-to-face quality time with qualified clients. With new mapping software, much of the statistical information about a property (surrounding schools, comparable sales, taxes, census, and environment) can be quickly assembled into an attractive graphical presentation piece.


Winning with technology...
...is more than the technology...it is a state of mind. Will you ever learn it all? It doesn't matter. The technology will continue to change faster than your capability to keep up with it... but you can always stay one step ahead of the competition, and that's the whole idea.


As Dr. Denis Waitley says: “Beginning is half done!”